Executive Summary

Strong quarter with core EPS $8.14 and diluted EPS $8.24; combined ratio improved to 87.3% and underlying combined to 83.9% as lower catastrophe losses and higher investment income drove results .
Capital return and outlook strengthened: $878M returned in Q3 (including $628M buybacks); management plans roughly $1.3B of repurchases in Q4 and about $3.5B across Q3’25–Q1’26 (implying ~5% share count reduction at recent prices), aided by ~$700M proceeds expected from the Canadian sale in early 2026 .
Top line mixed: consolidated net written premiums (NWP) +1% YoY to $11.47B; Business Insurance +3% (Middle Market +7%), Bond & Specialty +1%, Personal Insurance flat; large-account property softness persisted, reflecting underwriting discipline .
Shares traded lower intraday despite strong bottom line; Q&A suggested the market focused on slower top-line growth dynamics (property/Large Account, Corvus comp, personal lines exposure management) as a near-term overhang .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Broad-based profitability: all three segments produced strong income; consolidated underlying combined ratio improved 1.7 pts YoY to 83.9% and has been <85% for four consecutive quarters .
- Personal Insurance turnaround: combined ratio improved 11.2 pts YoY to 81.3%, with Auto CR 84.9% and Homeowners CR 78.0% on lower cats and better underlying performance; Auto underlying CR at 88.3% and year-to-date 88.3% .
- Investment income tailwind and outlook: after-tax NII rose 15% YoY to $850M; outlook lifted to ~$810M in Q4 and >$3.3B in 2026 (quarterly ramp to ~$885M by Q4’26) .
- Quote: “Underwriting income of $1.4 billion pre-tax more than doubled… The underlying result was driven by… an underlying combined ratio that improved to an exceptional 83.9%” — CEO .
What Went Wrong
- Property large-account pressure damped growth: National Property & Other NWP fell 6% YoY as TRV maintained pricing/terms discipline in a softening large account market .
- Asbestos charge in BI: annual review led to a $277M charge; BI showed net unfavorable PYD of $125M, partially offset by comp favorability ex-asbestos .
- Modest consolidated NWP growth (+1% YoY) and deceleration vs Q2 highlighted by analysts; management emphasized pricing/retention discipline and selective growth .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Revenues ($B)	$11.90	$12.12	$12.47
Diluted EPS ($)	$5.42	$6.53	$8.24
Core EPS ($)	$5.24	$6.51	$8.14
Combined Ratio (%)	93.2%	90.3%	87.3%
Underlying Combined (%)	85.6%	84.7%	83.9%
Net Written Premiums ($B)	$11.32	$11.54	$11.47
EPS vs Consensus	n/a (S&P Global unavailable)*	n/a (S&P Global unavailable)*	n/a (S&P Global unavailable)*
Revenue vs Consensus	n/a (S&P Global unavailable)*	n/a (S&P Global unavailable)*	n/a (S&P Global unavailable)*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global but not available via tool at this time.

Segment performance (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Segment	NWP ($B) Q3'24	NWP ($B) Q3'25	Combined Ratio Q3'24	Combined Ratio Q3'25	Underlying Combined Q3'24	Underlying Combined Q3'25	Segment Income ($M) Q3'24	Segment Income ($M) Q3'25
Business Insurance	$5.517	$5.675	95.8%	92.9%	87.9%	88.3%	$698	$907
Bond & Specialty	$1.072	$1.080	82.5%	81.6%	85.6%	85.8%	$222	$250
Personal Insurance	$4.728	$4.718	92.5%	81.3%	82.7%	77.7%	$384	$807

Key KPIs

KPI	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Catastrophe Losses (pre-tax, $M)	$927	$402
Net Favorable PYD (pre-tax, $M)	$315	$22
Net Investment Income (after-tax, $M)	$774	$850
Operating Cash Flow ($B)	n/a	$4.2
Adjusted Book Value/Share ($)	$144.57	$150.55
Share Repurchases ($M)	$557	$628
Holding Co. Liquidity ($B)	n/a	$2.8

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
After-tax NII	Q4 2025	Lower than current (not quantified)	~$810M	Raised
After-tax NII	FY 2026	Prior outlook lower (not quantified)	>$3.3B; ~$810M in Q1 to ~$885M in Q4	Raised
Share Repurchases	Q4 2025	n/a	~$1.3B planned	New detail
Share Repurchases	Q3’25–Q1’26	n/a	~$3.5B total; ~5% share count reduction at recent prices	New detail
Canadian Ops Proceeds	Early 2026	n/a	~$700M earmarked for buybacks	New detail
Expense Ratio	FY 2025 / 2026	~28.5% for FY25; no change for FY26	Manage to ~28.5% in 2026	Maintained
Dividend	Q4 2025	n/a	$1.10/sh payable Dec 31, 2025	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1–Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Underlying profitability	Underlying CR 84.8% in Q1; 84.7% in Q2	83.9%; 4th straight quarter <85%	Improving
Personal Auto	Q1 CR 83.4%; improved YoY	CR 84.9%; underlying 88.3%; year-to-date 88.3%	Sustained strength
Homeowners Profitability	Q2 underlying CR 70.3%	CR 78.0%; underlying 68.0% (YoY improvement)	Improving
AI/Technology	Efficiency/productivity emphasis; no numeric guide in Q1–Q2 releases	$1.5B+/yr tech spend; 65B claim datapoints fueling AI; expense ratio -300 bps since 2016	Intensifying focus
Large Account Property	Selective posture; growth record NWP in Q2 overall	National Property & Other NWP -6% YoY; discipline amid softening	Softer pricing; disciplined
Tariffs/Macro	Not highlighted in Q1–Q2 releases	Small Auto impact provision; not significant; monitoring fluid situation	Watch item
Regulatory/Legal	n/a	Florida excess profits: don’t expect return; de minimis P&L impact if any	Limited risk currently
Capital Management	$557M buybacks in Q2	Planned ~$1.3B Q4; ~$3.5B over 3 quarters	Accelerating

Management Commentary

CEO on earnings quality and underwriting: “Underwriting income of $1.4 billion pre-tax more than doubled… The underlying result was driven by… an underlying combined ratio that improved to an exceptional 83.9%” .
CEO on data/AI scale advantage: “More than 65 billion claim data points… We leverage that to sharpen our underwriting and shape our claim strategies” .
CFO on buybacks/liquidity: “We expect to increase the level of share repurchases in the fourth quarter to roughly $1.3 billion… around $3.5 billion… resulting in a reduction of our outstanding share count of about 5%” .
Personal Insurance President on Auto/Home: Auto underlying CR improved 2.9 pts YoY; Homeowners underlying improved ~6.4 pts; actions to manage CAT exposure progressing .

Q&A Highlights

Growth vs margin debate: Analysts flagged the stock trading down despite strong EPS, citing slower top-line; management reiterated growth is a priority but not at the expense of underwriting discipline .
AI and expense ratio: Management “very bullish” on AI, focusing on operating leverage more than a fixed expense-ratio target beyond 2026 .
Loss trend: Overall stable; no surprises in the quarter; PYD generally favorable over time .
Property pricing/mix: Large-account property is softening; middle/small commercial still seeing positive price increases with some deceleration .
Tariffs in Auto: Small provision booked; impact remains below mid-single-digit severity previously contemplated, but fluid .
Florida excess profits: TRV does not expect to return premiums; even if required, immaterial at group level .

Estimates Context

Consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2025 EPS and revenue was unavailable via our tool; therefore, we cannot present a formal “vs. estimates” comparison for EPS or revenue at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Given strong beats on operating metrics (combined ratios/NII) and benign cats vs prior year, street models may need to incorporate higher NII run-rate and a faster cadence of buybacks, offset by tempered top-line growth assumptions in large-account property .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Quality beat driven by underwriting and NII, not one-offs; underlying CR at 83.9% and benign cats underpin sustainability into Q4 .
Personal lines profitability has reset higher (Auto and Home), providing a second earnings engine alongside Commercial; watch seasonal 4Q auto loss seasonality (6–7 pts higher underlying loss ratio) .
Capital deployment is an immediate catalyst: ~$1.3B Q4 buyback and ~$3.5B across Q3’25–Q1’26 could reduce share count ~5% near term .
NII outlook step-up offers durable tailwind through 2026 (> $3.3B), with new-money yields 70–75 bps above embedded portfolio yields .
Growth optics may remain mixed near term (large-account property softness; personal lines exposure actions), but pricing/retention in core Middle Market/Select remain strong, supporting margin preservation .
BI asbestos charge reflects conservative reserving; ex-asbestos, PYD favorable in BI, with comp driving strength .
Focus for next quarter: trajectory of property pricing outside National Accounts; Auto growth vs retention as RPC moderates; execution on accelerated buybacks and finalization of Canadian sale proceeds .

Citations:

Q3 2025 8-K and exhibits:
Q3 2025 earnings slides:
Q3 2025 earnings call transcript:
Q2 2025 8-K:
Q1 2025 8-K:

Notes: S&P Global consensus estimates were not available via our tool for Q3 2025; where “vs. estimates” is marked n/a, please see S&P Global for the latest consensus.

TRAVELERS COMPANIES, INC. (TRV)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary